Biggest Upsets

VFL/AFL wins by the side given the smallest chance before the match, since 1897. Win chance is the winner's pre-match Elo expected score, home ground included.

16,883 results

Winner	Win Chance	Home	Score	Away	Score	Mar	Venue	Round	Date	Season
St KildaSt Kilda	2.7	St KildaSt Kilda	5.6 (36)	CarltonCarlton	2.12 (24)	12	JO	R18	3 Sep 1910	1910
FitzroyFitzroy	3.7	FitzroyFitzroy	14.15 (99)	West CoastWest Coast	12.17 (89)	10	PP	R24	31 Aug 1991	1991
RichmondRichmond	4.4	RichmondRichmond	9.14 (68)	MelbourneMelbourne	8.12 (60)	8	PR	R17	20 Aug 1960	1960
St KildaSt Kilda	5	St KildaSt Kilda	12.12 (84)	FootscrayFootscray	8.18 (66)	18	MO	R22	31 Aug 1985	1985
Gold CoastGold Coast	5.5	SydneySydney	8.16 (64)	Gold CoastGold Coast	12.16 (88)	24	SCG	R18	21 Jul 2018	2018
FremantleFremantle	5.5	HawthornHawthorn	13.12 (90)	FremantleFremantle	16.10 (106)	16	Dok	R18	4 Aug 2001	2001
North MelbourneNorth Melbourne	5.5	St KildaSt Kilda	8.11 (59)	North MelbourneNorth Melbourne	10.4 (64)	5	Dok	R21	23 Aug 2009	2009
St KildaSt Kilda	5.8	St KildaSt Kilda	13.10 (88)	GeelongGeelong	11.17 (83)	5	MO	R19	9 Aug 1980	1980
Brisbane BearsBrisbane Bears	6	Brisbane BearsBrisbane Bears	12.5 (77)	HawthornHawthorn	9.7 (61)	16	Car	R20	20 Aug 1989	1989
RichmondRichmond	6.3	RichmondRichmond	15.20 (110)	CarltonCarlton	12.21 (93)	17	MCG	R12	17 Jun 1988	1988
FootscrayFootscray	6.5	FootscrayFootscray	12.8 (80)	MelbourneMelbourne	10.11 (71)	9	WO	R15	8 Aug 1959	1959
FitzroyFitzroy	6.8	FitzroyFitzroy	15.23 (113)	HawthornHawthorn	10.19 (79)	34	JO	R18	2 Aug 1975	1975
FootscrayFootscray	6.9	FootscrayFootscray	16.11 (107)	HawthornHawthorn	12.20 (92)	15	WO	R13	19 Jun 1982	1982
SydneySydney	6.9	SydneySydney	9.16 (70)	CarltonCarlton	8.14 (62)	8	SCG	R21	14 Aug 1994	1994
St KildaSt Kilda	7.1	St KildaSt Kilda	17.16 (118)	FremantleFremantle	9.6 (60)	58	Dok	R18	19 Jul 2014	2014
MelbourneMelbourne	7.1	MelbourneMelbourne	14.15 (99)	CarltonCarlton	13.14 (92)	7	MCG	R18	16 Aug 1969	1969
West CoastWest Coast	7.3	Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs	12.13 (85)	West CoastWest Coast	14.8 (92)	7	Dok	R23	20 Aug 2023	2023
GeelongGeelong	7.5	GeelongGeelong	18.18 (126)	EssendonEssendon	12.15 (87)	39	KP	R10	22 Jun 1946	1946
St KildaSt Kilda	7.7	St KildaSt Kilda	11.6 (72)	FitzroyFitzroy	9.10 (64)	8	JO	R15	31 Jul 1948	1948
CarltonCarlton	7.9	CarltonCarlton	12.8 (80)	MelbourneMelbourne	10.13 (73)	7	Dok	R18	5 Aug 2006	2006
FitzroyFitzroy	8.1	FitzroyFitzroy	15.19 (109)	RichmondRichmond	12.16 (88)	21	JO	R15	12 Jul 1980	1980
St KildaSt Kilda	8.1	EssendonEssendon	6.19 (55)	St KildaSt Kilda	10.6 (66)	11	EM	R8	8 Jun 1912	1912
South MelbourneSouth Melbourne	8.2	CollingwoodCollingwood	4.5 (29)	South MelbourneSouth Melbourne	7.13 (55)	26	VP	R3	21 May 1904	1904
MelbourneMelbourne	8.2	EssendonEssendon	12.10 (82)	MelbourneMelbourne	14.12 (96)	14	WH	R18	6 Sep 1924	1924
SydneySydney	8.4	SydneySydney	23.17 (155)	EssendonEssendon	14.15 (99)	56	SCG	R21	26 Aug 1984	1984
North MelbourneNorth Melbourne	8.4	North MelbourneNorth Melbourne	13.8 (86)	CarltonCarlton	9.13 (67)	19	AS	R8	20 Jun 1936	1936
RichmondRichmond	8.4	GeelongGeelong	9.28 (82)	RichmondRichmond	13.18 (96)	14	KP	R7	13 May 1990	1990
GeelongGeelong	8.5	GeelongGeelong	6.14 (50)	South MelbourneSouth Melbourne	3.8 (26)	24	CO	R18	13 Sep 1919	1919
GeelongGeelong	8.5	RichmondRichmond	17.11 (113)	GeelongGeelong	18.15 (123)	10	MCG	R6	11 May 1974	1974
FitzroyFitzroy	8.6	FitzroyFitzroy	13.13 (91)	MelbourneMelbourne	12.13 (85)	6	BS	R13	1 Aug 1936	1936
St KildaSt Kilda	8.6	FootscrayFootscray	5.11 (41)	St KildaSt Kilda	6.10 (46)	5	WO	R13	20 Jul 1946	1946
St KildaSt Kilda	8.7	St KildaSt Kilda	10.12 (72)	FitzroyFitzroy	8.18 (66)	6	JO	R19	30 Aug 1952	1952
Gold CoastGold Coast	8.8	Gold CoastGold Coast	15.8 (98)	CarltonCarlton	11.20 (86)	12	Car	R22	25 Aug 2012	2012
FootscrayFootscray	8.8	FootscrayFootscray	14.9 (93)	CollingwoodCollingwood	12.15 (87)	6	WO	R15	5 Aug 1967	1967
EssendonEssendon	8.8	EssendonEssendon	16.14 (110)	St KildaSt Kilda	16.12 (108)	2	Dok	R20	16 Aug 2009	2009
MelbourneMelbourne	8.9	EssendonEssendon	6.16 (52)	MelbourneMelbourne	8.10 (58)	6	MCG	R10	2 Jun 2012	2012
Gold CoastGold Coast	8.9	RichmondRichmond	13.10 (88)	Gold CoastGold Coast	13.12 (90)	2	CS	R16	14 Jul 2012	2012
FootscrayFootscray	9	FootscrayFootscray	14.15 (99)	CarltonCarlton	12.10 (82)	17	WO	R2	2 Apr 1983	1983
CollingwoodCollingwood	9.1	MelbourneMelbourne	9.9 (63)	CollingwoodCollingwood	11.14 (80)	17	SCG	R13	14 Jun 2021	2021
FootscrayFootscray	9.1	RichmondRichmond	10.16 (76)	FootscrayFootscray	11.11 (77)	1	MCG	R22	1 Sep 1973	1973
HawthornHawthorn	9.2	HawthornHawthorn	16.9 (105)	CollingwoodCollingwood	11.7 (73)	32	MCG	R21	5 Aug 2023	2023
HawthornHawthorn	9.2	HawthornHawthorn	13.10 (88)	North MelbourneNorth Melbourne	9.16 (70)	18	GO	R17	13 Aug 1949	1949
North MelbourneNorth Melbourne	9.2	North MelbourneNorth Melbourne	11.7 (73)	RichmondRichmond	9.11 (65)	8	AS	R14	8 Aug 1936	1936
North MelbourneNorth Melbourne	9.2	North MelbourneNorth Melbourne	14.8 (92)	RichmondRichmond	11.22 (88)	4	Dok	R18	16 Jul 2022	2022
EssendonEssendon	9.3	EssendonEssendon	18.7 (115)	GeelongGeelong	16.15 (111)	4	Dok	R15	2 Jul 2011	2011
St KildaSt Kilda	9.4	FootscrayFootscray	11.13 (79)	St KildaSt Kilda	13.2 (80)	1	WO	R13	14 Jul 1956	1956
HawthornHawthorn	9.6	HawthornHawthorn	12.15 (87)	MelbourneMelbourne	11.15 (81)	6	GO	R6	1 Jun 1940	1940
North MelbourneNorth Melbourne	9.7	RichmondRichmond	11.18 (84)	North MelbourneNorth Melbourne	14.20 (104)	20	MCG	R4	25 Apr 1973	1973
MelbourneMelbourne	9.7	CollingwoodCollingwood	13.14 (92)	MelbourneMelbourne	16.9 (105)	13	VP	R18	2 Aug 1986	1986
St KildaSt Kilda	9.8	St KildaSt Kilda	13.15 (93)	GeelongGeelong	13.7 (85)	8	MCG	R15	16 Jul 1995	1995